The CTR Decline in Numbers
61%
Organic CTR decline with AI Overviews
68%
Paid CTR decline with AI Overviews
41%
Organic CTR decline even without AI Overviews
35%
Higher organic CTR when cited in AI Overviews
Understanding Click-Through Rate Basics
What CTR Measures and Why It Matters
Click-through rate represents the percentage of searchers who click through to a website after seeing it in search results. For organic results, CTR has traditionally served as a key performance indicator for SEO effectiveness, while paid CTR directly impacts advertising efficiency and cost-per-acquisition calculations.
The formula remains simple: CTR equals clicks divided by impressions, expressed as a percentage. However, interpreting this metric has become increasingly complex as Google's search results page has evolved to include featured snippets, knowledge panels, local packs, shopping results, and now AI-generated responses that may satisfy user intent without requiring a click.
Understanding where your pages appear in search results, what features accompany those listings, and how users engage with the overall search experience provides essential context for any CTR analysis. Our comprehensive SEO content strategy guide covers how to optimize for visibility in this evolving landscape.
The AI Overview Impact on Organic CTR
Quantifying the Decline
The introduction of Google AI Overviews has fundamentally altered the search results page for informational and educational queries. Research tracking 25.1 million organic impressions across 3,119 search terms over 15 months shows substantial and consistent impact.
For queries where AI Overviews appear, organic CTR declined from approximately 1.76% in June 2024 to 0.61% in September 2025--a 61% year-over-year decline. This means that for every 100 impressions a page received before AI Overviews, it now receives fewer than 40 clicks for the same query.
The decline has been relatively steady, with the lowest point occurring around July 2025 at 0.57% before a slight stabilization. Understanding these patterns is crucial for adapting your search visibility strategy in the new search landscape.
Queries Without AI Overviews Are Also Declining
Perhaps more alarming than the AIO-specific decline is the finding that queries without AI Overviews are also experiencing significant CTR erosion. Organic CTR for non-AIO queries declined from 2.74% in June 2024 to 1.62% in September 2025--a 41% decline.
This suggests that AI Overviews are not solely responsible for the CTR changes marketers are experiencing. Users appear to be changing their overall search behavior, potentially seeking answers through other AI platforms like ChatGPT and Perplexity, or going directly to trusted brand websites rather than starting with traditional search. The data indicates that even when AI Overviews don't dominate the SERP, traditional organic results are struggling to maintain click-through rates for informational queries.
The broader trend aligns with our analysis of how volatile Google rankings have become, as search behavior shifts across all query types.
The Paid Search CTR Crisis
Paid CTR Decline by Query Type
The paid search impact has been even more dramatic than organic, with CTR declining across all query categories but especially for queries featuring AI Overviews.
For queries without AI Overviews, paid CTR declined from 19.1% in June 2024 to 13.04% in September 2025--a 32% decline.
For queries with AI Overviews, paid CTR declined from 19.70% in June 2024 to 6.34% in September 2025--a catastrophic 68% decline. The most striking finding is the month-over-month volatility: paid CTR dropped from approximately 11% to just 3.26% in July 2025 before recovering slightly.
This volatility raises important questions about how negative keywords in PPC campaigns can help mitigate impact on affected query types. The most affected queries tend to be informational searches where AI Overviews provide complete answers, reducing the need for users to click on any advertisement.
Search Intent and CTR Variation
How Search Intent Affects CTR
Not all queries experience AI Overview impact equally. The research specifically tracks informational and educational queries, which represent the category most vulnerable to AI Overviews.
Informational queries (questions, how-to searches, educational content) historically had lower CTRs even before AI Overviews. AI Overviews extend this pattern, with AI-generated summaries often providing complete answers that eliminate the need for clicking.
Commercial intent queries (best X for Y, X vs Y, reviews) still show reasonable CTR but are increasingly seeing AI Overviews with product recommendations.
Transactional queries (buy X, X near me, X pricing) remain relatively protected but are beginning to see AI Overviews with shopping results.
Understanding your keyword portfolio's intent distribution helps predict which queries are most vulnerable to AI Overview impact and which may retain historical CTR patterns. Our SEO content strategy services can help you analyze and optimize for different query types.
Technical Implementation for Tracking
Google Search Console Considerations
Google Search Console provides organic CTR data but does not directly indicate AI Overview presence for individual queries. To understand how AI Overviews impact your specific performance, you need to correlate Search Console data with external AI Overview tracking tools.
Setting up custom dashboards that track CTR trends over time helps identify when significant changes occur. If you notice a sharp CTR decline for specific queries, investigating those queries with AI tracking tools can confirm whether AI Overviews are the cause. Our guide on server access logs for SEO covers technical analysis methods that complement Search Console data.
AI Overview Tracking Tools
Several tools have emerged to help marketers track AI Overview presence:
- Seer Interactive's Generative AI Answer Tracking - Provides ongoing monitoring
- ZipTie - Tracks historical AIO presence and citations
- Custom monitoring solutions - Can be built using search result APIs
These tools allow you to track your brand's citation rate, monitor competitor citations, and identify queries where AI Overviews appear but your brand is not included.
Measurement Frameworks for the New Landscape
Beyond Traditional CTR Metrics
The fundamental shift in search behavior requires expanding how we measure search marketing success. Consider measuring these alternative metrics:
Share of Voice in AI Citations: Track what percentage of relevant AI Overview citations include your brand.
Branded Search Lift: Monitor changes in branded search volume as an indicator of brand awareness.
Assisted Conversions: Use attribution modeling to understand how organic and paid search contribute to conversions even when direct CTR has declined.
Zero-Click Visibility: Evaluate the value of appearing in AI Overviews even when it doesn't drive direct clicks.
Setting Realistic Expectations
For informational queries with AI Overviews, expect organic CTR to remain around 0.6% rather than historical 1-2% rates. For paid search on these queries, expect CTR around 6% rather than historical 15-20% rates.
Our SEO consulting services can help you develop measurement frameworks that account for these new realities and identify opportunities for visibility even as traditional click metrics decline.
Strategic Recommendations
For Marketing Leaders
The data demands a strategic response rather than hoping for recovery:
Treat AIO citations as a competitive moat: Invest in the content quality, domain authority, and structured data needed to become a source Google's AI trusts and cites. Our guide on backlink research covers how to build the authoritative foundation that AI systems favor.
Question traditional paid strategy: At 6.34% CTR for AIO queries (down from 19.70%), run ROI analysis on whether high-funnel paid search campaigns justify current budgets. Understanding the top tools PPC agencies use can help optimize your remaining paid budget more effectively.
Diversify off Google aggressively: Even queries without AI Overviews are seeing 32-41% CTR declines. Consider allocating budget to AI platforms, social search, and direct traffic programs.
For SEO Practitioners
The tactical response focuses on adapting execution:
Focus on query segmentation: Identify which queries are prone to AI Overviews and analyze their historical CTR patterns.
Optimize for AIO presence aggressively: Make generative engine optimization (GEO) a priority, not a nice-to-have.
Prioritize non-AIO queries strategically: While CTR has declined 41% on non-AIO queries, they still outperform AIO queries by 166%.
Our comprehensive SEO services can help you implement these strategies and adapt to the changing search landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will CTRs recover to previous levels?
The data suggests this is a permanent structural change rather than a temporary disruption. 15 months of consistent decline across nearly every metric indicates the search landscape has fundamentally shifted.
How can I track AI Overview presence for my keywords?
Tools like Seer's Generative AI Answer Tracking, ZipTie, and custom monitoring solutions can track AI Overview presence and citations for your target keywords over time.
Are some industries more affected than others?
Informational and educational queries are most vulnerable. Commercial, transactional, and navigational queries show different patterns, though AI Overviews are expanding to more query types.
Should I reduce my paid search budget?
Not necessarily--run ROI analysis first. Lower-funnel commercial queries may still perform well, while high-funnel informational keywords may need budget reallocation to other channels.
How do I get cited in AI Overviews?
Focus on comprehensive, authoritative content with clear structured data. Build domain authority through quality content, and ensure your brand information is clearly attributed across your site.